Yevhen demonstrated how geopolitical phenomena can be modeled, using the example of the war between Russia and Ukraine. He also answered participants' questions about the practical application of the obtained results. After all, the future is what concerns us the most right now.

"The New Map of the World" is the title of a book by energy expert Daniel Yergin. It is also a general term indicating the geopolitical dynamics of changes in the modern world. The world is a complex multi-vector balancing system, and it can also be viewed as a dynamic game. In this global geopolitical game with incomplete and asymmetric information, hydrocarbon resources are the cards.

War, from an analytical approach, is also a game or part of a game of restructuring global systems and subsystems. However, modeling armed, antagonistic conflicts is significantly different from modeling economic conflicts. This was emphasized by Jack Hirshleifer, a theorist of bioeconomics and conflict theory.

Another interesting concept useful for analyzing the situation is a metaphor. By choosing a certain metaphor, we determine the distance from which we use tools to assess the geopolitical situation and the world picture and try to predict the next equilibrium point.

For complex dynamic systems, it is important not only to find a solution but also to be able to assess the practical component and the reality of its implementation. Sometimes a solution may have chaotic properties, which, although can be modeled, cannot be practically applied. At least, we do not have such tools yet.

Therefore, it is important to generate more practical ideas for geopolitical understanding — how the situation is developing. This approach is the basis of Western education. According to it, a problem can only be understood if a model with a solution and interpretation of the obtained solutions is built.

Thus, when the elements of the global geopolitical game, players' goals, and strategies are defined within the model, the important question is the choice of approach for analyzing a complex system. Yevhen noted that although he applies an economic approach, for a comprehensive analysis of a complex dynamic system, historical, evolutionary, investment, technological approaches, and their synthesis are also used.

An important stage of modeling complex systems is the ability to find future equilibrium. Equilibrium is when none of the players can improve their state if other players maintain the status quo. In conditions of information asymmetry and a dynamic information field, players have the concept of dynamic equilibrium, which needs to be analyzed and predicted.

All the listed stages are elements of effective modeling of complex systems' behavior. One of the most powerful tools is the Monte Carlo method, developed by Lviv Polytechnic graduate Stanislaw Ulam, a participant in the Manhattan Project and one of the creators of the hydrogen bomb. The main goal of the method is to choose the best among all alternative solutions.

Returning to today's realities, there are currently two global players in the world that together produce 40% of the world's GDP and account for 50% of all military spending. This is G2 (Group of Two) — China and the United States of America. And, sooner or later, these two tectonic plates must collide.

Regarding Ukraine, Yevhen believes: the world is ready to help rebuild the country, and for us, this will be a powerful window of opportunity. However, to make this a reality, our priority should be the military-industrial complex, increasing the efficiency of the agricultural sector, global leadership in IT outsourcing and IT development for the military-industrial complex, investments, and modernization of the metallurgical sector to support the development of the military-industrial complex. Also, organizing the military defense of the state based on the best practices of Israel and Switzerland.

Here are the books mentioned by Yevhen during the webinar that may be useful for understanding global processes:

Vonnegut K. "All the King's Men"
Dawkins R. "The God Delusion"
Yergin D. "The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations"
Yergin D. "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power"
Lem S. Works of various years
Lo A. "Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought"
Sapolsky R. "Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst"
Ulam Stanislaw "Adventures of a Mathematician"
Liu Cixin "The Three-Body Problem"
Bernstein, Peter "Against the Gods"
Hirshleifer, Jack "The Dark Side of the Force: Economic Foundations of Conflict Theory"

New Economic Map of the World: Based on the Webinar by Yevhen Pentsak